Brindlewood Bay — Theorize

At the table

In Brindlewood Bay, the Theorize move is how the Mavens nail down whodunit. Once they have talked through a theory (and hold enough Clues—at least half the mystery’s Complexity, rounded up), they roll:

2d6 + Clues in the theory − Complexity

Read the total:

Total	Result
6−	The theory is wrong; the Keeper responds.
7–9	The theory is right, but the Keeper adds a snag to the answer or makes acting on it risky.
10–11	The theory is right; the Keeper offers a clear chance to stop the culprit or avert disaster.
12+	As 10+, and someone tied to Brindlewood’s conspiracy outs themselves to the Mavens.

“Clues in the theory” means clues you folded into the explanation or accounted for—not every Clue the table might hold.

Try it

In the playground, open this recipe in the playground and click Run. Defaults use Complexity 6 and 5 clues in the roll; tweak COMPLEXITY and CLUES in the editor to match your mystery.

The script

↗Scale = (
    scale()
    .step("INCORRECT", ..6)
    .step("CORRECT_COMPLICATION", 7..9)
    .step("CORRECT", 10..11)
    .step("CONSPIRACY_REVEAL", 12..)
)

COMPLEXITY = 6
CLUES = 5

roll = 2d6 + CLUES - COMPLEXITY
out = roll.bucket(Scale)
output("theorize", out)
output("p_not_wrong", out.p_at_least("CORRECT_COMPLICATION"))
output("p_clean_correct", out.p_at_least("CORRECT"))
output("p_conspiracy_reveal", out.p_at_least("CONSPIRACY_REVEAL"))

rows = [
    ("{} clues in theory".format(c), (2d6 + c - COMPLEXITY).bucket(Scale).p_at_least("CORRECT_COMPLICATION"))
    for c in range(3, 9)
]
output("p_clean_by_clues", prob_table(rows))

theorize · Outcomes

outcome	%	frac	X/36
INCORRECT	58.3	7/12	21
CORRECT_COMPLICATION	33.3	1/3	12
CORRECT	8.33	1/12	3
CONSPIRACY_REVEAL	0.00	0	0

p_not_wrong · Prob

outcome	%	frac	X/36
p_not_wrong	41.7	5/12	15

p_clean_correct · Prob

outcome	%	frac	X/36
p_clean_correct	8.33	1/12	3

p_conspiracy_reveal · Prob

outcome	%	frac	X/36
p_conspiracy_reveal	0.00	0	0

p_clean_by_clues · Table

outcome	%	frac	X/36
3 clues in theory	16.7	1/6	6
4 clues in theory	27.8	5/18	10
5 clues in theory	41.7	5/12	15
6 clues in theory	58.3	7/12	21
7 clues in theory	72.2	13/18	26
8 clues in theory	83.3	5/6	30