# Exactly this outcome, or this good or better?

**Part C · L10 · Prerequisite: L09 · One modelling idea**

## Situation, question, and prediction

Revisit Defy Danger without learning another game. Is the chance of receiving the middle-band offer the same as the chance of rolling at least 7? Predict which question includes more results.

## Build

On named outcomes, `.pmf(label)` means exactly that label. `.p_at_least(label)` means that step and every later step in the ladder. The order comes from `.step`, not alphabetical sorting. It is a reporting order, not a universal ranking of every fictional choice.

```dice
total = d(6) + d(6)
bands = scale().step("GM outcome").step("Bargain").step("Threat avoided")
result = bucket(total, bands, [6, 9])
rows = [("Exactly the middle band", result.pmf("Bargain")),
        ("Seven or more", result.p_at_least("Bargain")),
        ("Ten or more", result.pmf("Threat avoided"))]
output("Different outcome questions", prob_table(rows))
```

## Run, read, and check

The rows are 15/36, 21/36, and 6/36. Seven or more includes both the middle and top bands. Cut points `[6, 9]` mean the first band ends at 6 and the second at 9; everything higher goes to the last band.

## Change one thing

Add +2 to the total. Exactly middle stays 15/36; seven or more becomes 30/36; ten or more becomes 15/36.

## Try it yourself

Write a query for exactly the lowest band, then explain the complement of seven or more. Answer: `result.pmf("GM outcome")` is 15/36, and 1 − 21/36 agrees. Do not add all three displayed rows: they overlap.

## Rules and model notes

[Dungeon World SRD, Defy Danger](https://www.dungeonworldsrd.com/moves/). This models outcome bands, not the GM’s choice or the fiction. A 6− leaves what happens to the GM; 7–9 is a worse outcome, hard bargain, or ugly choice, not universally a completed success.

## What you now know / where next

Exactly this outcome, or this good or better? is the reusable idea. Follow the generated
previous/next links below, or return to the [course index](index.html).
For a complete self-contained application, see [dungeon-world-defy-danger](../cookbook/dungeon-world-defy-danger.html).