# Brindlewood Bay: a report must distinguish eligibility from odds

**Part H · L31 · Prerequisite: L30 · One modelling idea**

## Situation, question, and prediction

The Murder Mavens have a theory. In the supplied **Brindlewood Bay** rules,
they must first gather at least half the mystery’s Complexity, rounded up,
and reach a consensus. The roll is 2d6 plus the number of Clues incorporated
into the theory or otherwise explained away, minus Complexity.

How many accounted-for Clues give a clean-or-better chance above half?
Predict whether merely being eligible to roll means the theory is likely correct.

## Build

This comparison assumes **every gathered ordinary Clue is accounted for**.
That assumption makes one number serve both purposes here; the cookbook
separates them. Void Clues are not counted as ordinary mystery Clues.

The supplied text describes standard mystery Complexity as 6–8. Use
`(complexity + 1) // 2` to round half upwards for an integer. The loop starts
at that eligibility minimum, not a hard-coded three. It ends at Complexity+4
for a short comparison; this endpoint is a reporting choice, not a game limit.

```dice
complexity = 6
if type(complexity) != "int" or complexity < 6 or complexity > 8:
    fail("This report covers standard mystery Complexity 6–8")
minimum_clues = (complexity + 1) // 2
rows = []
for clues in range(minimum_clues, complexity + 5):
    total = d(6) + d(6) + clues - complexity
    rows.append((str(clues) + " clues: clean or better", total.p_ge(10)))
output("Clean theory comparison", prob_table(rows))
base = d(6) + d(6)
output("Any correct at equal clues and complexity", base.p_ge(7))
output("Conspiracy revelation at equal clues and complexity", base.p_ge(12))
```

## Run, read, and check

At Complexity 6, compare 3–10 Clues. Clean-or-better probabilities are
**0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 26 out of 36** respectively. Nine accounted-for
Clues is the first compared setting above half. Three Clues makes the group
eligible, but its maximum modified total is 9: a clean result is impossible.

At equal accounted Clues and Complexity, any correct theory (7+) is 21/36,
clean or better (10+) is 6/36, and the additional conspiracy revelation (12+)
is 1/36. These are nested events, not probabilities to add together.

A 7–9 theory is correct but brings a complication or a dangerous/complicated
opportunity to act. A 10+ gives a correct solution and an opportunity to resolve
it; 12+ additionally reveals someone involved in the dark conspiracy. “Clean”
is this report’s shorthand for 10+, not a claim that the mystery is already resolved.

## Change one thing

Set Complexity to 7. The legal starting count becomes 4, not 3; the table
covers 4–11 Clues. The same probabilities appear because its modifiers again
run from −3 through +4. Ten accounted-for Clues is the first above-half setting.

## Try it yourself

At Complexity 7, the Mavens have gathered five ordinary Clues but account for
only four. Can they roll, assuming consensus? What is their modifier?
**Answer:** yes, five exceeds the eligibility minimum of four; the modifier
is **4−7 = −3**, not 5−7. Clean-or-better is impossible, while any correct
theory is 6/36. Eligibility and the roll modifier ask different questions.

Write a recommendation limited to this report: at Complexity 6, with all
Clues accounted for and no Crown use, nine Clues first exceeds 50% for 10+.
Do not infer whether gathering those Clues is worth the fictional risk.

## Rules and model notes

Source: Jason Cordova, *Brindlewood Bay: A Dark & Cozy Mystery Game*, the
user-supplied text reviewed on 2026-09-15: **Rolling Dice**, **Theorize**,
**Complexity**, **Void Clues**, and the Keeper’s **Theorize** guidance.
The supplied file does not identify its edition/printing; this page is tied
to that text, not every version. See the [publisher’s game page](https://www.gauntlet-rpg.com/brindlewood-bay.html)
for the game, not as a substitute citation for the checked procedure.

This is the **initial roll before Crowns**. Theorize cannot use advantage,
disadvantage, or effects of other moves. In this text, a Crown can raise the
success tier only if **every Maven** puts one on; it is not simply +1 to the
dice total. Crown decisions, repeats after a Keeper reaction, and the Void
Mystery variant are excluded. Independent human review remains pending.

## Where next

[Theorize recipe](../cookbook/brindlewood-bay-theorize.html) separates gathered
and accounted Clues. Continue to [build and defend a model](32-build-and-defend.html).