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Exactly this outcome, or this good or better?

Part C · L10 · Prerequisite: L09 · One modelling idea

Situation, question, and prediction

Revisit Defy Danger without learning another game. Is the chance of receiving the middle-band offer the same as the chance of rolling at least 7? Predict which question includes more results.

Build

On named outcomes, .pmf(label) means exactly that label. .p_at_least(label) means that step and every later step in the ladder. The order comes from .step, not alphabetical sorting. It is a reporting order, not a universal ranking of every fictional choice.

total = d(6) + d(6)
bands = scale().step("GM outcome").step("Bargain").step("Threat avoided")
result = bucket(total, bands, [6, 9])
rows = [("Exactly the middle band", result.pmf("Bargain")),
        ("Seven or more", result.p_at_least("Bargain")),
        ("Ten or more", result.pmf("Threat avoided"))]
output("Different outcome questions", prob_table(rows))

Different outcome questions · Table

Run, read, and check

The rows are 15/36, 21/36, and 6/36. Seven or more includes both the middle and top bands. Cut points [6, 9] mean the first band ends at 6 and the second at 9; everything higher goes to the last band.

Change one thing

Add +2 to the total. Exactly middle stays 15/36; seven or more becomes 30/36; ten or more becomes 15/36.

Try it yourself

Write a query for exactly the lowest band, then explain the complement of seven or more. Answer: result.pmf("GM outcome") is 15/36, and 1 − 21/36 agrees. Do not add all three displayed rows: they overlap.

Rules and model notes

Dungeon World SRD, Defy Danger. This models outcome bands, not the GM’s choice or the fiction. A 6− leaves what happens to the GM; 7–9 is a worse outcome, hard bargain, or ugly choice, not universally a completed success.

What you now know / where next

Exactly this outcome, or this good or better? is the reusable idea. Follow the generated previous/next links below, or return to the course index. For a complete self-contained application, see dungeon-world-defy-danger.

Content ID: L10 · Review status: pilot

Prerequisites: L09