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Brindlewood Bay: a report must distinguish eligibility from odds

Part H · L31 · Prerequisite: L30 · One modelling idea

Situation, question, and prediction

The Murder Mavens have a theory. In the supplied Brindlewood Bay rules, they must first gather at least half the mystery’s Complexity, rounded up, and reach a consensus. The roll is 2d6 plus the number of Clues incorporated into the theory or otherwise explained away, minus Complexity.

How many accounted-for Clues give a clean-or-better chance above half? Predict whether merely being eligible to roll means the theory is likely correct.

Build

This comparison assumes every gathered ordinary Clue is accounted for. That assumption makes one number serve both purposes here; the cookbook separates them. Void Clues are not counted as ordinary mystery Clues.

The supplied text describes standard mystery Complexity as 6–8. Use (complexity + 1) // 2 to round half upwards for an integer. The loop starts at that eligibility minimum, not a hard-coded three. It ends at Complexity+4 for a short comparison; this endpoint is a reporting choice, not a game limit.

complexity = 6
if type(complexity) != "int" or complexity < 6 or complexity > 8:
    fail("This report covers standard mystery Complexity 6–8")
minimum_clues = (complexity + 1) // 2
rows = []
for clues in range(minimum_clues, complexity + 5):
    total = d(6) + d(6) + clues - complexity
    rows.append((str(clues) + " clues: clean or better", total.p_ge(10)))
output("Clean theory comparison", prob_table(rows))
base = d(6) + d(6)
output("Any correct at equal clues and complexity", base.p_ge(7))
output("Conspiracy revelation at equal clues and complexity", base.p_ge(12))

Clean theory comparison · Table

Any correct at equal clues and complexity · Prob

Conspiracy revelation at equal clues and complexity · Prob

Run, read, and check

At Complexity 6, compare 3–10 Clues. Clean-or-better probabilities are 0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 26 out of 36 respectively. Nine accounted-for Clues is the first compared setting above half. Three Clues makes the group eligible, but its maximum modified total is 9: a clean result is impossible.

At equal accounted Clues and Complexity, any correct theory (7+) is 21/36, clean or better (10+) is 6/36, and the additional conspiracy revelation (12+) is 1/36. These are nested events, not probabilities to add together.

A 7–9 theory is correct but brings a complication or a dangerous/complicated opportunity to act. A 10+ gives a correct solution and an opportunity to resolve it; 12+ additionally reveals someone involved in the dark conspiracy. “Clean” is this report’s shorthand for 10+, not a claim that the mystery is already resolved.

Change one thing

Set Complexity to 7. The legal starting count becomes 4, not 3; the table covers 4–11 Clues. The same probabilities appear because its modifiers again run from −3 through +4. Ten accounted-for Clues is the first above-half setting.

Try it yourself

At Complexity 7, the Mavens have gathered five ordinary Clues but account for only four. Can they roll, assuming consensus? What is their modifier? Answer: yes, five exceeds the eligibility minimum of four; the modifier is 4−7 = −3, not 5−7. Clean-or-better is impossible, while any correct theory is 6/36. Eligibility and the roll modifier ask different questions.

Write a recommendation limited to this report: at Complexity 6, with all Clues accounted for and no Crown use, nine Clues first exceeds 50% for 10+. Do not infer whether gathering those Clues is worth the fictional risk.

Rules and model notes

Source: Jason Cordova, Brindlewood Bay: A Dark & Cozy Mystery Game, the user-supplied text reviewed on 2026-09-15: Rolling Dice, Theorize, Complexity, Void Clues, and the Keeper’s Theorize guidance. The supplied file does not identify its edition/printing; this page is tied to that text, not every version. See the publisher’s game page for the game, not as a substitute citation for the checked procedure.

This is the initial roll before Crowns. Theorize cannot use advantage, disadvantage, or effects of other moves. In this text, a Crown can raise the success tier only if every Maven puts one on; it is not simply +1 to the dice total. Crown decisions, repeats after a Keeper reaction, and the Void Mystery variant are excluded. Independent human review remains pending.

Where next

Theorize recipe separates gathered and accounted Clues. Continue to build and defend a model.

Content ID: L31 · Review status: pilot

Prerequisites: L30

Rules review: source checked 2026-09-15 against user-supplied text; printing unidentified; human review pending